By Rishaan Chowdhury
People sleep peacefully. Outside, the air is warm as the sun rises over southern Israel. A cool breeze wafts through the serene kibbutzim. In Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, the sabbath morning is quiet. Suddenly the silence is pierced by air raid sirens. Within moments thousands of rockets are fired at the cities, citizens panicking as they take cover. Explosions rock the metropolises as the Iron Dome defense system shoots down rockets. Meanwhile in the kibbutzim, pandemonium spreads, as Hamas terrorists storm over the heavily fortified Gaza border and attack innocent civilians. Gunmen shoot at anyone they see, barging into homes. Hostages are taken and fear and pandemonium envelope the nation.
That was the reality Israeli civilians awoke to in Israel on October 7th.
Today the world holds its breath, as Israel and the terrorist group Hamas remain in a bitter standoff. After Saturday’s attack Israel has pummeled Gaza with unprecedented airstrikes, as its military slowly enters Gaza. The attack on Israel has sparked threats of a wider conflict, with American forces lying in the nearby waters, Iran threatening to bring in their own military, and nearby Muslim nations vehemently protesting against Israel’s retaliation. However in the days following the tragic attack, there has been a third element complicating this situation. The Middle East is the world’s powerhouse, producing a whopping 31.7% of the world’s oil. With the world so dependent on oil, this region is extremely important to foreign governments. Between the cruelty of Hamas, alliances with Israel, and oil, the conflict in Israel is a web of western failures and savage terrorism.
Since Israel’s inception in 1945 the native Palestinians in Israeli territory have constantly been displaced, with ever-changing borders drawn up by the United Nations. Throughout Israel’s violent history it’s Arab neighbors have fought to take over the territory, citing controversial claims that Israeli land is actually Arab land. Constant conflict between Israel and scattered Palestinian freedom groups led to smaller and more restricted Palestinian territory. This is especially true for the Palestinian Authority governing West Bank. In the 1990’s the revolutionary Oslo Accords were signed between Israel and the Palestinian Liberation Organization which established the Palestinian Authority as the government over the “Palestinian territory” which included the West Bank and Gaza Strip. In 2006, Israeli officials attempted to negotiate with Hamas, attempting to convert them into a legitimate political party. After winning elections in Gaza that gave them control of the enclave, Hamas resorted to terrorism, putting Gazans in a limbo, being under the limited control of a terrorist organization. Today, the borders of internationally recognized Palestine are much smaller than they were created with by the UN in 1945. In Gaza, innocent civilians experience the worst of the situation, with the violence-stricken enclave under the precarious control of Hamas.
Meanwhile international interests complicate the situation further, with Israel’s oil rich neighbors not in full support of Israel. The western world has been united in their backing of Israel, but that can change easily. The west imports large amounts of oil from the Middle East. According to the Energy Information Administration almost 12% of U.S. oil imports are from the Middle East which is equivalent to roughly one million barrels of oil a day from the Persian Gulf. Additionally, China is the largest importer of oil from Saudi Arabia and Iran – according to the New York Times – which furthers the risk of a global conflict. This creates a messy situation where a few of the countries the U.S. is most reliant on for oil have condemned one of America’s closest allies, Israel. The U.S. response has been strong and hasn’t shown signs of wavering, however that stance could collapse quickly if the oil flow is threatened. Oil holds power, and power can unleash autocracy and war.
The war in Israel exemplifies this point. Apart from the ideological aspects of this brutal war, the risks that it creates are owed in a large part to the west’s failure to transition from oil. Oil is undeniably the most significant global energy source, and its importance cannot be understated. While the principles of peace, freedom, and democracy are indeed fundamental values in the Western world, the dependence on oil often takes precedence. The global reliance on oil, driven by economic and geopolitical factors, sometimes overshadows the pursuit of these ideals. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, oil exports to Europe from Russia nearly shut down, spiraling Europe into an energy crisis. Part of Europe’s strong response to the Russian war in Ukraine has been due to the motive of alleviating the European energy struggle. That’s just one example of oil driven conflicts globally. The impact of a conflict on world peace is not determined by the number of casualties it causes. In some cases, such as the Rwandan genocide, where almost a million people tragically lost their lives in a hundred days, the global repercussions were not extensive. Conversely, in regions like Israel, even a relatively small-scale conflict can carry the risk of escalating into a larger international conflict with potentially widespread consequences. This heightened risk can be attributed, in part, to the region's significance as the energy provider for the world. If someone examines the governmental structures of any oil exporter outside of the west, there is a large chance that they will find the government to be semi if not fully autocratic. However some of the world’s biggest proponents of freedom and peace, the opposite of autocracy and violence, are reliant on these semi-dictatorships. For decades people have been urging large scale oil importers to transition away from oil and fossil fuels. There is abundant evidence proving the catastrophe an oil-dependent world threatens yet the world continues to burn this unsustainable fuel. The governments of the U.S. or European countries continue to make hollow pledges to transition to greener energy. But contrary to their statements the world spends nearly seven times the amount of money it spends on green energy on fossil fuel subsidies. According to the UN, 2030 is when climate change will become irreversible. The black gold that is being imported and fought over may be the end of humanity, but no country is ready to face that fact head on.
The Middle East historically has been the victim of many bloody wars over oil. During WWII the German and Italian forces pushed across North Africa towards the oil rich British colonies in the Middle East. When Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, it was motivated by the prospect of holding a stake in the global oil empire. When the U.S. invaded Iraq it was done under the guise of anti-terrorism but in truth it was motivated by preventing Iraq’s hold over Big Oil. Today, though Hamas attacked Israel with the motive of terrorism, their attack has a dangerous impact on the world, driven by the failure of western governments to transition away from an energy source that has driven violence around the globe for a long time. The world is at a fork in the road right now, where one way will lead to a green sustainable future, and the other will lead to short-term benefits, but war, violence, and an environmental disaster in the future. This is the decision that has to be made, and unfortunately many fear that society has already chosen the path they want to take. We can see the catastrophe on the horizon, conflicts in Israel and in Ukraine give us a precious lens into the future. We’ve been given the playbook, it’s now our time to make a decision.