By Rishaan Chowdhury
The last time I wrote about Ukraine, the world was still resonating from the Russian invasion of the country. It had been a year of war and violence, and miraculously Ukraine’s aged, seemingly incapable military had fought off Russia’s first attack, defending the capital, Kyiv, in what seemed like an impossible feat. At the time, American and German M1A1 Abram and Leopard tanks, respectively, along with advanced GPS-guided HIMAR rocket systems were arriving in the war-torn country. It seemed that it was only a matter of time before a peace-deal and/or ceasefire would come. All eyes were on the war. Yet today, now two years since Russian President Vladimir Putin initially ordered the attack, with hundreds of thousands of people dead, there is no end in sight, and the world's attention is drifting elsewhere. A Ukrainian victory, or ceasefire deal, seems even more out of reach than it ever has been since the beginning of the invasion and Russia is continuing to gain the upper hand. Sure, there are articles in the news every now and then about a Russian ship or tank warehouse detonated by a Ukrainian drone, but at the same time, Russian forces continue to press ahead, slowly but surely, all the while their air forces pummel Ukrainian cities, towns, and villages, killing civilians and spreading fear. So why is this? How come Ukraine hasn’t had that underdog movie victory that seemed so close? Why haven’t the western weapons done their job?
A lot of the Russian success is due to the nature of the battle. Ukraine is fighting the fight of its life, but with American and European arms. Russia has a massive pile of weapons to draw on, with superior numbers and massive technological advances compared to the Ukrainians’ aged Soviet-era military. Ukraine, with this massive disadvantage, is therefore nearly entirely reliant on western weapons. Approximately, 83% of the country's air defense systems and roughly 50% of its military's rifles, shotguns, and handguns are donations. American and European tanks, guns, Surface-to-Air Missiles, F16s, and HIMAR rockets are the country's lifeline. But their lifeline is dependent on western politics and public opinion, something that is impossible to win an entire war with. Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky continues to rally support, convinced of Russia’s ultimate defeat. His battle is in the capital of the United States, the parliament of the UK, and the Elysée Palace of France. President Zelensky travels around the world, singing the same tune of victory and freedom, of a Ukrainian triumph. But the world is slowly becoming wearier of the tune. American politicians are turning their heads elsewhere, looking towards the impending election and the Gaza war, with Ukraine remaining a distant memory. In the UK, the country’s famed National Healthcare Service is collapsing as their Prime Minister tries to send Syrian refugees to Rwanda in his “brilliant” plan to curb illegal immigration, further drawing attention away from the disaster unfolding in the east. True, the U.S. congress just approved billions in aid, but when will it reach the frontline, and what will it actually achieve? The time it will take for weapons bought with this funding to be used on the frontline is far too long to have a significant effect. Furthermore, irregular aid packages make it impossible for a steady flow of weaponry to beat back the Russian assault. Just take a look at the last year, the F16 program was approved nearly a year ago and still hasn't reached the frontlines. Furthermore until recently no aid packages for the country had been approved for nearly a year. This half-hearted form of aid is unsustainable. Worse, the Russians are completely undeterred by the thought of facing sophisticated American F16s or tanks, as reflected in statements by their president, Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin has taken the gamble that the western support is eventually going to dry up, and when it does, victory will come immediately. Unfortunately, that gamble seems to be turning in their favor. Every day Russian forces grind forward in this destructive war even as the Ukrainian soldiers fight on valiantly but unable to hold back the brutal onslaught. Casualties continue to pile up, with both sides killing thousands and wrecking millions in weapons. However Russia can afford such losses, with a nearly unlimited pool of weaponry and ammunition to draw from. Zelensky continues to be bravely defiant, determined that Ukraine will come out on top. But his country's weaponry comes from a rapidly dwindling supply of political and public support. Ukraine is fighting its last stand practically entirely off of western aid, something extremely unsustainable.
Ukraine’s additional concern is its dwindling manpower. Some units in the country are operating at barely 35% capacity, as written by the Washington Post. Furthermore, frontline commanders are facing a tragic quandary, how to deal with reinforcements. Replenishing manpower is much needed, but comes at a heavy cost. A battalion commander, who goes by the name Oleksandr, says “the new recruits tend to be poorly trained, creating a dilemma about whether to send someone immediately onto the battlefield because reinforcements are needed so badly, even though they are likely to get injured or killed because they lack the know-how.” Its the same story with manpower as it is with weapons, Russia has more resources. Casualties continue to stack up on both sides, but statistics show Russia has over three times the amount of manpower to draw on. As blood continues to spill across the country, the Russian military continues to push ahead, regardless of lives lost. That lack of concern for the dead is what differentiates an authoritarian dictatorship like Russia from a democracy like Ukraine. However sadly, that is also what is losing the war, as the circumstances, statistics, and technology are all in Russia's favor. When a single Ukrainian soldier dies, his death shrunk the country’s chances of survival. But when a Russian soldier dies, he is quickly replaced by another soldier, who becomes another casualty, and another body.
When Russia invaded Ukraine just over two years ago, the fate of the former Soviet republic seemed sealed, with it only being a matter of time before the country fell into Russia’s grasp. Two years later Ukraine has bravely fought on, pushing the Russians away from its capital, and sending drones to take the fight to President Putin’s homeland. But the country’s real fight isn’t in the east, led by their soldiers. Instead it is in the west, as President Zelensky fights to maintain the critical western support that’s the country’s lifeline. When western support goes, so will Ukraine, and after twenty seven months of war, and hundreds of thousands dead, the west is weary, and support seems to be on the brink of collapse. Russian President Vladimir Putin betted on the west's growing trepidation towards funding - and fighting - a long, drawn out war, two years ago. Unfortunately, that bet is turning out in his favor. The fate of Ukraine, written by President Putin on February 24, 2022 may have been delayed by the support that poured in from across the world, and the valor that Ukrainian soldiers displayed, but it is impossible to win a war entirely off of foreign weapons and bravery. Sadly, that is what it has come to.